Research Papers

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  • Working Papers (newest first)
  • "Empirical Tests of the Green Paradox for Climate Legislation" (with Maya A. Norman).
  • "Institutions and Global Crop Yields" (with David Wuepper, Haoyu Wang, Meha Jain and Robert Finger).
  • "Cooling Externality of Large-Scale Irrigation" (with Thomas Braun).
  • "Optimal Exploration and Price Paths of a Non-renewable Commodity with Stochastic Discoveries" (with Ivar Ekeland, Peter Tankov, and Brian Wright).
  • "Environmental Drivers of Agricultural Productivity Growth: CO2 Fertilization of US Field Crops" (with Charles A. Taylor).
  • "Coase, Hotelling and Pigou: The Incidence of a Carbon Tax and CO2 Emissions" (with Geoffrey Heal).
  • "Ground-Level Ozone and Corn Yields in the United States" (with Christopher Boone and Juha Siikamäki).
  • "Climate Change, Crop Yields, and Internal Migration in the United States" (with Shuaizhang Feng and Michael Oppenheimer).
  • Publications (newest first)
  • "Non-linear relationships between daily temperature extremes and US agricultural yields uncovered by global gridded meteorological datasets" 2024. Nature Communications. (with Dylan Hogan).
  • "Fifth National Climate Assessment- Chapter 19: Economics" 2023. (with Jeremy Martinich, Solomon Hsiang, Simon Greenhill, Monica Grasso, Rudy M. Schuster, Lint Barrage, Delavane B. Diaz, Harrison Hong, Carolyn Kousky, Toan Phan, Marcus C. Sarofim, Benjamin Simon, Stacy E. Sneeringer).
  • "Future socio-ecosystem productivity threatened by compound drought–heatwave events" 2023. Nature Sustainability. (with Jiabo Yin, Pierre Gentine, Louise Slater, Lei Gu, Yadu Pokhrel, Naota Hanasaki, Shenglian Guo and Lihua Xiong).
  • "Declining crop yields limit the potential of bioenergy" 2022. Nature, 609: 250-251 (with Gernot Wagner).
  • "Market Expectations of a Warming Climate" 2021. Journal of Financial Economics, 142(2): 627-640 (with Charles Taylor). Online Appendix and Replication files (right click to save zipped folder)
  • "Violent conflict exacerbated drought-related food insecurity between 2009 and 2019 in sub-Saharan Africa" 2021. Nature Food. (with Weston Anderson, Charles Taylor, Sonali McDermid, Elisabeth Ilboudo-Nébié, Richard Seager, Wolfram Schlenker, Fabien Cottier, Alex de Sherbinin, Dara Mendeloff, and Kelsey Markey).
  • "Quantifying the Impacts of Compound Extremes on Agriculture" 2021. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 25: 551-564 (with Iman Haqiqi, Danielle S. Grogan and Thomas W. Hertel).
  • "Environmental Drivers of Agricultural Productivity Growth and Socioeconomic Spillovers" 2020. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's Agricultural Symposium .
  • "The Effects of Extreme Weather on Apple Quality." 2020. Nature Scientific Reports, 10: 7919. (with Tobias Dalhaus, Michael M. Blanke, Esther Bravin and Robert Finger ).
  • "Estimating global agricultural effects of geoengineering using volcanic eruptions." 2018. Nature, 560: 480–483. (with Jonathan Proctor, Solomon Hsiang, Jennifer Burney, and Marshall Burke).
  • "The cost of a warming climate - feeling the heat." 2018. Nature, 557: 498.
  • "Asylum applications respond to temperature fluctuations." 2017. Science, 358(6370): 1610-1614 (with Anouch Missirian).
  • "Comparing and combining process-based crop models and statistical models with some implications for climate change." 2017. Environmental Research Letters, 12(9): 1-15 (with Michael J. Roberts, Noah O. Braun, Thomas R. Sinclair, and David B. Lobell).
  • "The Use of Panel Models in Assessments of Climate Impacts on Agriculture." 2017. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 11(2): 258-279 (with Elodie Blanc).
  • "Asylum Applications and Migration Flows." 2017. American Economic Review - Papers and Proceedings, 107(5): 436-440 (with Anouch Missirian).
  • "Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models." 2017. Nature Communications, Article Number 13931: 1-9 (with Bernhard Schauberger, Sotirios Archontoulis, Almut Arneth, Juraj Balkovic, Philippe Ciais, Delphine Deryng, Joshua Elliott, Christian Folberth, Nikolay Khabarov, Christoph Müller, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Susanne Rolinski, Sibyll Schaphoff, Erwin Schmid, Xuhui Wang, and Katja Frieler).
  • "Recent weather fluctuations and agricultural yields: implications for climate change." 2016. Agricultural Economics - Plenary Session of the Triannual International Conference of Agricultural Economists, 47(S1): 159-171 (with Anthony D'Agostino).
  • "Balancing economic and ecological goals." 2016. Science, 353(6300): 651-652 (with Eyal Frank).
  • "Airports, Air Pollution, and Contemporaneous Health." 2016. Review of Economic Studies, 83(2): 768-809 (with W. Reed Walker).
  • "Federal Crop Insurance and the Disincentive to Adapt to Extreme Heat." 2015. American Economic Review - Papers and Proceedings, 105(5): 262-266 (with Francis Annan).
  • "The effects of extremely wet planting conditions on maize and soybean yields." 2015. Climatic Change, 130(2): 247-260 (with Daniel W. Urban, Michael J. Roberts, and David B. Lobell).
  • "Empirical studies on agricultural impacts and adaptation." 2014. Energy Economics, 49: 555–561 (with Maximilian Auffhammer).
  • "Greater Sensitivity to Drought Accompanies Maize Yield Increase in the U.S. Midwest." 2014. Science, 344(6183): 516-519 (with David B. Lobell, Michael J. Roberts, Noah Braun, Bertis B. Little, Roderick M. Rejesus, and Graeme L. Hammer).
  • "It’s not just the statistical model. A comment on Seo (2013)." 2013. Climatic Change, 121(2): 125-128 (with Maximilian Auffhammer).
  • "Corn Production Shocks in 2012 and Beyond: Implications for Harvest Volatility." 2014. NBER Conference: The Economics of Food Price Volatility (eds: Jean-Paul Chavas, David Hummels, and Brian D. Wright. Chicago University Press (with Steven T. Berry and Michael J. Roberts).
  • "Identifying Supply and Demand Elasticities of Agricultural Commodities: Implications for the US Ethanol Mandate." 2013. American Economic Review, 103(6): 2265-2295 (with Michael J. Roberts).
  • "Something in the Water: Contaminated Drinking Water and Infant Health." 2013. Canadian Journal of Economics , 46(3): 791-810 (with Janet Currie, Joshua S. Graff Zivin, Katherine Meckel, and Matthew J. Neidell).
  • "US maize adaptability." 2013. Nature Climate Change, 3(8): 690–691 (with David B. Lobell and Michael J. Roberts).
  • "Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change." 2013. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 7(2): 181-198 (with Maximilian Auffhammer, Solomon Hsiang, and Adam Sobel).
  • "The critical role of extreme heat for maize production in the United States." 2013. Nature Climate Change, 3(5): 497–501 (with David B. Lobell, Graeme L. Hammer, Greg McLean, Carlos Messina, and Michael J. Roberts).
  • "Agronomic Weather Measures in Econometric Models of Crop Yield with Implications for Climate Change." 2013. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 95(2): 236-243 (with Jonathan Eyer and Michael J. Roberts).
  • "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather: Comment." 2012. American Economic Review, 102(7): 3749-3760 (with Anthony C. Fisher, W. Michael Hanemann, and Michael J. Roberts).
  • "Is Agricultural Production Becoming More or Less Sensitive to Extreme Heat? Evidence from U.S. Corn and Soybean Yields." 2012. NBER Conference: The Design and Implementation of U.S. Climate Policy (eds: Don Fullerton and Catherine Wolfram), Chicago University Press (with Michael J. Roberts).
  • "Projected Temperature Changes Indicate Significant Increase in Interannual Variability of U.S. Maize Yields." 2012. Climatic Change, 112(2): 525-533 (with David B. Lobell, Michael J. Roberts, and Daniel Urban)
  • "Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980." 2011. Science, 333(6042): 616-620 (with David B. Lobell and Justin Costa-Roberts)
  • "Water Quality Violations and Avoidance Behavior: Evidence from Bottled Water Consumption." 2011. American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 101(3): 448-453 (with Joshua Graff Zivin and Matthew Neidell).
  • "Optimal Management of an Ecosystem With an Unknown Threshold." 2011. Ecological Economics, 70(4): 627-640 (with Nicholas Brozovic).
  • "The Evolution of Heat Tolerance of Corn: Implications for Climate Change." 2010. NBER Conference: The Economics of Climate Change: Adaptations Past and Present (eds: Gary Libecap and Richard Steckel), Chicago University Press (with Michael J. Roberts).
  • "Robust Negative Impacts of Climate Change on African Agriculture." 2010. Environmental Research Letters, 5(1): 1-8 (with David B. Lobell).
  • "World Supply and Demand of Food Commodity Calories." 2009. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 91(5): 1235-1242 (with Michael J. Roberts).
  • "Reduced Form versus Structural Modeling in Environmental and Resource Economics." 2009. Annual Review of Resource Economics, 1: 351-380 (with Christopher Timmins).
  • "Consumer and Market Responses to Mad-Cow Disease." 2009. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 91(4): 1140-1152 (with Sofia B. Villas-Boas).
    Online Appendix / Data Source.
  • "Nonlinear Temperature Effects indicate Severe Damages to U.S. Crop Yields under Climate Change." 2009. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106(37): 15594-15598 (with Michael J. Roberts).
    Replication data and code
    Research Highlight in Nature Reports
    Comment by Meerburg et al. Our reply and appendix
    Earlier working paper "Estimating the Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yields: The Importance of Non-linear Temperature Effects."
  • "Fisheries Management under Cyclical Population Dynamics." 2009. Environmental and Resource Economics, 42(3): 379-410 (with Richard T. Carson, Clive W. J. Granger, and Jeremy B. C. Jackson).
  • "Sustainable Fisheries." 2008. Nature, 455(7216): 1044-1045 (with Geoffrey Heal).
  • "Water Availability, Degree Days, and the Potential Impact of Climate Change on Irrigated Agriculture in California." 2007. Climatic Change, 81(1): 19-38 (with W. Michael Hanemann and Anthony C. Fisher).
  • "Nonlinear Effects of Weather on Corn Yields." 2006. Review of Agricultural Economics, 28(3): 391-398 (with Michael J. Roberts).
  • "The Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Agriculture: An Econometric Analysis of Optimal Growing Conditions." 2006. Review of Economics and Statistics, 88(1): 113-125 (with W. Michael Hanemann and Anthony C. Fisher).
  • "Will U.S. Agriculture Really Benefit from Global Warming? Accounting for Irrigation in the Hedonic Approach." 2005. American Economic Review, 95(1): 395-406 (with W. Michael Hanemann and Anthony C. Fisher).